Just in time for Holloween: A Few Spooky Stats YTD 2009.

Here are some random statistics from various sources:

Canadian Tech Sector
TSX/TSXV technology sector listings September 2009 - 284 including 5 new listings. Down from 310 at the beginning of the year. A 9% drop.

YTD deals in the TSX Tech Sector - 83
Mean deal size: $5.05 m
TSXV deals - 71 with a mean deal size of $1.3 million
TSX deals - 12 with a mean deal size of $27.3 million

YTD Cleantech deals
Mean deal size: $13.5 m
Top performing sector YTD TSX: InfoTech at 69%
(Source: TSX) 


Bridgewater Systems (BWC.TO) Q3 2009 Preview: Will momentum continue?

Earlier this month, BWC stock peaked at $9.80 per share, more than quadrupling the share price of $2.17 as it entered 2009. It has come off those highs since and it looks like it is now trading in the mid $8 range ahead of its Q3 financial report, which is scheduled to be released at 7:00AM on November 5, 2009. The investor conference call is scheduled for 8:30AM that day, and the call-in numbers are:


After a remarkable run since the beginning of the year, investors may wonder how much upside remains in the stock. As a reminder, performance for H1 2009 was as follows:


GOOG Beats Expectations...Will CX .TO Follow Again?

During the Q4 earnings season I began highlighting an interesting pattern between Google earnings performance and Cyberplex performance. Essentially, each time that Google exceeded earnings expectations, Cyberplex also exceeded forecasts when it reported approximately two to three weeks later. In July, I became a little bolder and proposed a trading idea that Google performance has consistently foreshadowed Cyberplex performance, suggesting that traders could accumulate ahead of CX.TO earnings report. 


Top 5 Pick Guestlogix: Good news flow plus growing Q3 earnings

Guestlogix has presented some good news flow recently. During the past 30 days, the company has made seven corporate announcements including a settling of an IP dispute with Abanco (at 0 cost), an airline deal with Horizon Air, an ad serving deal with JETERA, merchandising deals with Forum Telecom (mobile subscriptions), Facilities Partner Ltd (train tickets), and Vegas.com (Vegas shows). In addition, it announced a product enhancement for NFC contactless payment options.

The Rubber Hit The Road...Where Was ACT?

Earlier this year I posted an item on Active Control Technologies after it had, after two years, finally secured certification by the Mine Health and Safety Administration (MSHA), otherwise known on Bay Street as "emshaw", to deploy its wireless system in American coal mines.The title was Active Control Technology (ACT.V): Rubber Hits Road and the note was upbeat but cautionary. The gist of the post was this: the Company has lots of potential, but it needs to execute well in the short-term to leverage potential. Management had communicated to analysts that it had $6 million in contracted backlog ready to immediately convert upon MSHA approvals and that it had a qualified pipeline in excess of $20 million. It set an expectation that the company was about to transform from a speculative promise to a high growth company that was not far away from actual earnings. This was six months ago.

What has happened in the intervening six months? Nearly nothing. The rubber hit the road and ACT was nowhere to be found. Since its potentially transformative MSHA announcement, management has spent most of the time shoring up its diminishing working capital while it waits for contracts...and waits. In retrospect, the $6 million backlog that was communicated to the street was either not well understood, or simply unrealistic. The persistent over-promise throughout the last couple of years may have finally caught up to the CEO.


INTC flies by forecasts - strong beat and analyst upgrades everywhere.

Intel is the first of technology sector bellwethers to report. It had already pre-reported that it would have a strong third quarter, although the actual numbers surpassed all analysts expectations - both top line and bottom line. The sequential quarterly growth was reported by Management to be the strongest in 30 years. Analysts are raising targets, and already some are whispering stretch targets of $40.00, with official 12-month targets appearing to settle in a range between $26 and $30.


Why The IT Sector Has Outperformed the General Market YTD 2009: Licensing.

As of September 18th, the TSX Information Technology Index has increased year-to-date by 69.8% and has been the best performing sector in the market.(Global Equity Weekly - BMO). As a corollary to this, in the case that skeptics believe it to be a RIM-only measurement, the information technology sector of the S&P 500 has been the top performing sector with a 44.9% year-to-date improvement (Global Equity Weekly - BMO). From the March 6th market lows, the performance has been even better.

The RES Free Thinking Top 5 Small Cap Tech Picks performed better than the IT Sector as a whole. The aggregate stock price performance of TSX:DSG, TSX:CX, TSX:BWC, TSX:RKN, and TSXV:GXI is 196% since March 6th, and 185% YTD since January 1st. As well, during that time CX and DSG were able to raise $17 m, and $40 m in new equity respectively.